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When Vladimir Putin visited India in the previous decade, the international order looked entirely distinct. That short trip, limited by the global health crisis, focused on talks on economic and military ties between the two leaders.

Not long after, the large-scale military offensive of Ukraine would transform the Russian leader into a global pariah, greatly limiting his overseas engagements.

Furthermore, that period came before a major change in ties between Washington and Delhi, marked by contentious statements and the introduction of heavy trade tariffs.

"In this context, the significance of this diplomatic mission to engage with the Indian PM is profound, serving as a symbol of resilient relations and a defiance of outside coercion," experts emphasize.

A Critical Juncture for Two Major Powers

The summit occurs at a delicate moment. President Putin comes after rejecting recent peace proposals for Ukraine, bolstered by reported advances by Russian forces.

"For Russia, the key significance of this engagement is its very occurrence," commented a prominent analyst based in Moscow. "It suggests a return to something resembling normal international relations."

For India, the risks are even higher. The country faces a challenging international environment, characterized by a less engaged United States, a weakened Russia, and an increasingly powerful China.

This delicate balance was underscored just before the visit, when European ambassadors published a public commentary questioning Russia's commitment to peace. This prompted a firm rebuke from Indian officials, who called it an unacceptable diplomatic practice.

The Enduring Challenge from the North

The historical partnership dates back to the Soviet period and remains firmly rooted, with Moscow historically being Delhi's top defense supplier. This alliance was generally accepted by the West until a change in approach.

For years, Western nations ignored India's substantial purchases of discounted Russian oil. Yet, recently stalled diplomacy, accusations increased, leading to punitive tariffs and a significant downturn in US-India ties.

"Consequently, India has returned to its traditional posture of 'hedging'," noted a foreign policy expert. "It signals to the US that it has other choices and is waiting to see how the global dynamics settle."

Beyond international politics, India's core motivation with Russia is geography. "China remains the greatest threat to India, and historically, India has relied on Russia as a continental balancer against China," the analyst added.

The deepening partnership between Russia and China has caused concern in Delhi, prompting efforts to avoid an unbreakable bond between its adversary and its traditional ally.

This apprehension has also spurred India's drive to diversify its defense procurement, shrinking its dependence on Russian equipment from about 70% to a reduced portion in the past few years.

"Delhi will try to find a middle ground: purchase enough Russian arms to maintain the alliance, but avoid so dependent that a supply disruption would cripple its defenses," the analyst remarked.

Energy and Economic Ties

Increased trade relations is likely to be a major topic. President Putin has publicly stressed plans to elevate cooperation with India to a "qualitatively new level", in spite of Western sanctions.

The issue of energy purchases remains central. While the Indian government has stated to keep buying Russian oil, recent restrictions have dampened activity from the private sector. At the same time, India has agreed to boost imports of US energy.

A Kremlin spokesperson acknowledged "hurdles" in energy trade but insisted it would proceed uninterrupted. The official downplayed the effect of sanctions, claiming they would cause only "insignificant" and "temporary" drops and that Russia possesses the "technology" to circumvent them.

Diplomatic Constraints

When the two leaders sit down, the topic of Ukraine is likely to be mentioned primarily through India's standard call for a peaceful resolution.

"While the Indian leader has access to all parties, the nation does not possess the necessary leverage to significantly influence the conflict," the analyst said. "Aside from encouraging talks, its ability to effect change is constrained."

Ultimately, notwithstanding the public displays of camaraderie between the two leaders, the relationship is at its core one of "pragmatic strategic interest," driven by national interest in a rapidly changing world.