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Just 48 hours to go.

England's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|